Is forecasting such a bad thing?

This is in response to a few posts about forecasting by constructivists, plus some feedback on my own. Predicting versus Forecasting. Well, if predictions are made by simplifying certain variables, are predictions made to the best ability? I think what constructivism brings to the table is more of a discussion. Furthermore, identities are important. Understanding the way in which leaders, societal groups, etc perceive themselves in relation to others is extremely important, especially today when non-state actors are so powerful and influential. It may be hard to predict what such groups will do because they do not fit into the "plain and simple, anarchic international system" as viewed by realists. Instead, they complicate the picture and make predicting much more difficult. However, putting these actors aside and looking just at the structural units that make up the world, will not help us in predicting. Instead, the forecasting that constructivists can contribute and work along side the work that other IR theorists are doing in order to make a better "prediction" for the future.